US and Cuba Hold First Senior-Level Talks Since 2016

Cuba confirmed this week that it held a meeting with senior US officials, the first such contact since 2016. The meeting was not announced in advance and the agenda has not been disclosed. The fact of the meeting is being reported; the content is not.

The significance of the meeting depends almost entirely on what was discussed and what commitments, if any, were made. A meeting between senior officials of two countries that have not had normal diplomatic relations for decades can be a genuine opening or a procedural event designed to produce a news item without requiring anyone to commit to anything. The absence of any public statement about the agenda suggests the latter is more likely than the former, but that inference could be wrong.

The timing is notable. The meeting occurs during an administration that has taken a maximally confrontational posture toward most adversaries while occasionally producing unexpected diplomatic contacts — the Iran ceasefire negotiations, the Pakistan-mediated talks, and now this. Whether these contacts reflect a coherent strategy or ad hoc opportunism is not something that can be assessed from the outside with confidence. Both explanations are consistent with the available evidence.